Plata o plomo
Mexico. Land of enchanting desert, majestic sierra, white-sand beaches, secluded coves, Mayan heritage,
lush rain forests, and a spiritual, familial essence. With its oil reserves and industrious citizenry, Mexico is also a nation of great potential.
But very few Americans who have not recently visited or do not live near our neighbor to the South realize that she is on the edge of an abyss -- Mexico also has the potential to become a narco state and terrorist haven in the near future.
There's a war going on
In a December, 2008 memorandum by former Clinton administration Drug Czar General Barry McCaffrey (USA-ret.), prepared after a recent fact-finding trip to Mexico, McCaffrey highlighted:
"The civil government in Ciudad Juarez, Mexico has collapsed. In El Paso's sister city of 1.5 million, murders, mutilation, torture, kidnappings, and extortions are committed with impunity. Beyond the cost in human lives and safety, it also threatens to imperil the economic renaissance in this region and the over $2 billion spent by Mexican nationals in our local economy. And there is the very real national security threat, that this brutality and lawlessness could extend throughout Mexico and lead to a flood of refugees who would overwhelm our border, our city and our country and make today's undocumented immigration problem seem insignificant by comparison."
Powerful words that stem from reality. Two years ago Mexican President Calderon began a campaign against the narcotraficantes of the Mexican Drug Cartels. Today the heads of captured police officers and federal soldiers roll down the streets of central and northern Mexico while their bodies are dumped in the gutters. Since 2007, more than 8,000 Mexicans have been murdered. The Cartels put up one billboard that threatens the police, and another offering lucrative employment if they join the Cartels.
A choice is thus brazenly delivered: plata o plomo - silver or lead. The map illustrates the Cartels' areas of operation within Mexico:
Warnings and political will
According to a report by the U.S. Joint Forces Command on worldwide security threats, Mexico is one of two countries that "bear consideration for a rapid and sudden collapse." The command's Joint Operating Environment (JOE 2008) report, which contains projections of global threats and potential next wars, puts Pakistan on the same level as Mexico. The report is one in a series focusing on Mexico's internal security problems, mostly stemming from drug violence and drug corruption.
However, and although Mexico is a huge security concern for the United States, Mexico is not Pakistan. But while it is not yet anywhere near collapsing and still possesses the political and social will to prevail, Mexico is indeed a threatened state due to the violent drug cartels and its own legacy of corrupt politics. General McCaffrey's report also recognized this:
"Now is the time during the opening months of a new US Administration to jointly commit to a fully-resourced major partnership as political equals of the Mexican government. We must jointly and respectfully cooperate to address the broad challenges our two nations face. Specifically, we must support the Government of Mexico's efforts to confront the ultra-violent drug cartels. We must do so in ways that are acceptable to the Mexican polity and that take into account Mexican sensitivities to sovereignty. The United States Government cannot impose a solution. The political will is present in Mexico to make the tough decisions that are required to confront a severe menace to the rule of law and the authority of the Mexican state."
Why should we worry about what happens to Mexico? Because Mexico is arguably the most important foreign partner of the United States, while we are without doubt the most important foreign partner for Mexico. Here are just a few reasons why:
- Mexico supplies a third of our imported oil;
- We account for 47% of all foreign direct investments in Mexico;
- 18,000 Mexican companies have U.S. investments;
- 50% of Mexican imports come from the U.S., while 82% of their exports go to the United States;
- Mexican nationals constitute approximately half of the 20 million undocumented aliens in the U.S., many who have found employment in and are critical to our agricultural system, meat packing industry, restaurants, day care centers, and the construction sector;
- There are more than one million legal border crossings per day along our 2,000-mile shared frontier; and
- There are an estimated one million illegal border crossings per year.
Support and vigilance
In an attempt to show support, Barack Obama promised President Calderon that the U.S. would take stronger action to stem the flow of weapons smuggled from Texas and other border states to drug lords in Mexico. Obama told Calderon that he would direct the Homeland Security secretary to lead an effort to increase information sharing between law officers on both sides of the border.
A fact not generally known here in America is that Mexico is widening its use of funds to fight the cartels provided under a $1.4 billion U.S. assistance program known as the Merida Initiative, a security cooperation and assistance package for Mexico and countries in Central America.
Obviously, much is at stake for future U.S. economic and national security policy. A stable, economically healthy, and lawful Mexican neighbor is fundamental to prosperity and peace within North America. And it is no secret that the Mexican Cartels' contribution to our drug affliction is central to much of our nation's criminal and societal maladies.
It must be noted that there is no shortage of courage among Mexico's security forces. President Calderon has charted a determined path, and his senior law enforcement officer, Secretary Genaro Garcia Luna, has placed his life on the line. And while hundreds of law enforcement officers have been murdered, the Federal police have boldly adopted their own motto to reject plata o plomo:
Ni un paso atras -- Not one step back.