Season's greetings
Ooh, baby the winds are gonna blow - often. This from government forecasters who anticipate another above-normal hurricane season in the Atlantic Ocean, from June 1 through November 30. Say what? Getting our butts kicked several times last year doesn't count?
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the projected activity for 2005 is: 12 to 15 tropical storms, seven to nine of those becoming hurricanes, and three to five intensifying to major hurricanes (with minimum sustained winds in excess of 111 mph). Since tropical storms themselves (sustained winds below 74 mph) cause major flooding, kill people, and destroy things, you might well understand why we Little Martin residents are beginning to develop a collective nervous tic.
In 2004, we saw the formation of 15 named Atlantic storms, nine hurricanes, and six major hurricanes. Just four of those - Charley, Frances, Ivan, and Jeanne, caused more than $42 billion in damage and killed more than 50 people. And just in case you think that NOAA scientists are smoking crack and somehow got their figures wrong, famed meteorologist Dr. William Gray and his Tropical Meteorology Project at Colorado State University has predicted 13 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes. It's enough to make a sober man drink, especially if he has ever been outside during a hurricane. I have experienced this awesome power more than once and although I didn't drink, I came very, very close to banging a few down.
Just as global climatic warming and cooling phases are found to occur in cycles, hurricane activity is cyclic. This means that hurricane activity waxes and wanes in cycles that span approximately 15-20 years. This also means that for the next 15 years, we can expect greater-than-normal hurricane activity.
As an emergency management professional, I'd like to say that we train for such occurrences and are as ready as we can be in the event of hurricane landfall. I'd like to say that because of our past experiences, the knowledge gained will help us employ a smoother recovery phase in the event of hurricane landfall. I'd like to say these things and more but the fact is, once the winds begin to grow in ferocity and the unrelenting sheets of rain begin to fall, all of the planning and training in the world will not lessen the immediate impacts of landfall.
So waterproof your important papers, get your homes ready, stock up on supplies, and greet the season as prepared as you can be. As for me, the word 'retirement' has a nice ring to it, no?